Navigating the Consumer "Pleasure Revenge"​ – advice from Mark Twain, a Surfer and a Futurist Named Popcorn.

The post-pandemic "Pleasure Revenge" is accelerating consumer spending and a return to pre-Covid behaviors.

As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, Americans are returning to gyms in big numbers; booking vacations and plane trips; rocking out at concerts; and going to popcorn-scented movie theaters to see Hollywood blockbusters such as Spider-Man.

What the WSJ missed is that we see this same human behavior after every major shock to the national psyche, as well as the inevitable post-exuberance counter-trend...which brings us to Mark Twain, Faith Popcorn and Laird Hamilton.

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes."

Mark Twain told us this would happen.

The national and personal sacrifice endured during WWI was followed by the Roaring Twenties. After WWII, the U.S. economy boomed as Americans bought homes, moved to the suburbs, drove the latest tail-finned beauty from Detroit, and had many, many kids. The economic malaise of the '70s ushered in the 1980s and "Beemer"-driving Yuppies with a voracious appetite for wine, martinis and cigars. And following the severe emotional and economic pain inflicted on 9/11, per capita consumer spending began to steadily climb.

"For every trend, there is a counter-trend."

This "Pleasure Revenge" – popularized by trend expert, Faith Popcorn – taps into a deep human need to soothe pain and maybe even re-exert control over our lives after having had our "normalcy" abruptly taken from us.

But as important as it for businesses to have strategies to profit during the post-crisis Pleasure Revenge, Ms. Popcorn cautions us to think beyond that exuberant period and prepare for the counter-trend, a theme she frequently cites.

What might a counter-trend look like a few years from now? Well, consider that each of those boom periods mentioned above eventually led to an equally large counter-force.

The Roaring Twenties was followed by the Great Depression. The insatiable consumerism of the 1950s and early 60s preceded the economic stagnation of the 1970s. In 1989, Yuppies woke up to Black Monday – their first global economic crisis. The post 9/11 economic growth abruptly crashed in 2008 because of the subprime lending meltdown.

Which brings us to surfing.

"Surfing's one of the few sports that you look ahead to see what's behind."

So what should businesses do? Well, perhaps take inspiration from surfing legend Laird Hamilton. Like a riding a heavy wave, get too far ahead of it and it will crush you; drop in too late and end up nowhere. Timing is everything.

Businesses must invest in products and experiences that satisfy the current unbridled demand and consumer spending.

But as Laird Hamilton advises, be aware of what's following from behind – a big counter trend that may lead to an eventual economic downturn. Best to not invest and expand with a mindset that this frothy consumer spending will never end. It will.

Just ask Mark Twain.

Dare to be wrong!

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Those who work with me know one of my favorite exhortations:  Dare to be wrong!  Take more chances; be more curious; be the catalyst that helps the team find a better idea. Waiting for the perfect solution is a sure-fire way to become road kill. 

But my exhortation flies into the headwinds of a culture that prizes perfection.   Management gurus exhort us to pursue excellence, to move from good to great.  Even social media demands that we always project the most perfect version of our lives.

My goal for the upcoming year is to spend more time celebrating “better” instead of “perfect.”

I thought about this recently after speaking to a group of college students who are considering a career in marketing communications.  One student sent me a follow up note asking this question: “Has there ever been a time where you had to execute a project that didn’t turn out as successful as you had imagined? If so, how were you able to bounce back from that?”

Packed deep within her question was the assumption that in business, let alone in life, we are expected to succeed every time and that failure is, well, a failure.  My response was simple: you will likely fail more than you will succeed, and that this is part of the process of gaining knowledge and experience, each project, each day, each year.

Getting better is a noble pursuit.  Life is a journey of learning.  So, too, is business.

Practitioners of Design Thinking embrace the principle of rapid prototyping over waiting to build a perfect representation of an idea.  (Microsoft’s CEO Satya Nadella is working to shift his company’s culture from one of know-it-all to one that values learn-it-all.)

It’s not innovation that sets Silicon Valley apart from other centers of technological development—it’s a willingness to iterate toward an ever better idea.

Sony and Toyota, two marketers I’ve had the good fortune to work with, are dedicated to the Japanese philosophy of Kaizen, which means to “change for the better.”

Digital marketing teams everywhere pursue optimization, which if you think about, is simply Kaizen – learning how to continuously improve the outcomes of our work, then do so again tomorrow and the day after that as well. 

Colin Powell, a retired four-star general and secretary of state, has a rule of thumb about making tough decisions. Every time you face a tough decision you should have no less than 40% and no more than 70% of the information you need.  If you move forward with less than 40% of the information, you’re shooting from the hip.  If you wait until you have 70% of the information, the opportunity will likely pass.  (Increasingly true as markets, customer behaviors, and competitors are changing faster than ever.)

Too many times I see people in meetings who I know have a point of view, yet are afraid to offer it up because they’re not certain their idea is right.  I’ve learned over time that ideas are usually born out of a collision between two seemingly opposing or disparate ideas.  In daring to be wrong – daring to offer up your idea – you serve as a catalyst to help others uncover an even bigger idea as they challenge and build upon your point of view.

So, here’s to 2022.  It doesn’t have to be the best year ever, just a better year.  One in which we celebrate continuous learning and growth.  One in which we dare to be wrong.

"Remember when"...I could have been a billionaire.

In April, 2011 Facebook launched Timeline to enable us to chronologically categorize photos and events.

In September, 2008 I scribbled this idea in an old journal that I recently stumbled upon:  Create a website called "Remember When" – a chronological scrapbook of the moments in your life.  

Yes, I had invented Timeline nearly three years before Facebook.  No, I did not do anything with the idea beyond writing it down in an apparent plot to torment my future self.

At the time I was inspired by the insight that many of us have a running stream of memories and events that are sometimes fuzzy on dates and details.  Was it in 5th grade or 6th that I took that camping trip with my childhood friend Mike Harris?  Was that memorable guys reunion trip to Vegas (that we really should not remember) in 2002 or 2003?  In what year did I spar with Muhammad Ali on the back of that plane?  Was the drunken Barney the Dinosaur at Lauren's 4th or 5th birthday party?

The idea was based on a wizard that would prompt and post memories along a timeline so that over time you could see the story arc of your life.  It would include multiple views into your life's chronology – through events or photos or pop culture milestones.

I also wrote about a community of friends posting recollections of shared memories, with an ability to overlay a friend's timeline on your own (what were you doing when I was doing...).  What kills me most is this next notation:  include a way to alert friends when you post a memory that includes them.  

So the moral of the story is this:  If you can dream it you can do it.  And if you do it...secure the legal rights before Mark Zuckerberg does. 

The Future of Marketing is Human.

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A while back I visited the Museum of Failure in Los Angeles. Seriously, this is a real thing–– a pop-up museum showcasing decades of really bad marketing ideas. My personal favorite? Gerber Singles––meals in a jar targeted at young adults who didn’t have time to cook. And as we know, nothing says your life sucks more than eating dinner in a jar…from a baby food brand.

This experience jolted me into thinking about how marketers, no matter how well-intentioned, can become better equipped to embrace change and avoid being showcased in the Museum of Failure.

We’re living in a period of unprecedented change. Massive demographic shifts. Shifting cultural norms. Media fragmentation. New technologies. The power of data. Low barriers to entry. New business models disrupting the status quo. 

Change is simply the new normal. The marketers that succeed will be those that quickly adapt, developing the skills to rapidly test, learn and iterate. Being open to change isn’t a best practice, it’s a survival skill. (As has been said, if you don’t like change, you’ll like irrelevance even less!)

The most exciting part of where marketing is heading is what we are returning to. We’re moving past the phase of being dazzled by shiny new marketing technologies, applying them simply because we can. We’re remembering that on the other side of that screen, those VR goggles, or holding the mobile app…there is a human being. 

Human Centered Design, and by extension, Human Centered Marketing, starts with genuine empathy. Human centered marketers don’t draw inspiration from the latest technologies. They draw inspiration from people. They develop an empathetic understanding of their journey, needs, and aspirations.

This is not about going analog. Far from it! Data and marketing technologies give us more ways to be more relevant and personalized to customers. Addressable TV enables us to use Mass Media as 1:1 marketing. First party data segmentation enables us to personalize at scale. Machine Learning helps technology be more intuitive. (Just ask Alexa.) Data provide the ability to better understand people––how they’re alike, how they’re unique, how we can help them.

But we know, too, that there is a dark side to technology, to social media, to seeing humans as algorithms. We are witnessing an erosion of trust concurrent with an increase in isolation, social bubbles, and stress.

This is why I've embraced a simple truth: what’s true in life should be true in marketing. If a marketer hopes to build lasting customer relationships, it must first earn the customer’s trust. Empathy is how we build trust in our personal relationships. So, too, in marketing. 

Empathy is different than being customer driven. (Hey, simply being customer driven leads to dinners in a jar for time-starved young adults!) Empathy is the ability see the world through another person’s eyes…to truly understand their experience by standing in their shoes.

Practitioners of Human Centered Design start by putting aside preconceived ideas and instead focus on understanding the people they are designing for. It involves discovering what people are trying to accomplish; how they want to feel; their unarticulated needs; their pain points. Successful marketers increasingly understand that true customer empathy is a source of differentiation.

We see signals pointing to the future of marketing in many of the disruptive marketing frameworks that take a human centered approach to helping people accomplish goals. 

Direct-to-Customer Marketers such Casper, Warby Parker and Carvana are disrupting categories by uncovering unarticulated needs and designing new experiences that are convenient, friction-free and personalized. (DTC marketers have the added advantage of capturing 1st Party Data, enabling them to maintain ongoing relationships with their customers.) 

Subscription Marketers, similar to DTC brands, solve real customer pain points yet have the added benefit of continuously learning how to personalize the experience. Stitch Fix learns more about its customers each month based on what clothing they return or keep. Netflix uses machine learning to understand what we like to binge. And in a surprising move, John Hancock recently announced it will only underwrite “interactive insurance” policies for customers who agree to share health data from their wearable device. (Subscription models have a huge financial benefit to these marketers, generating a more predictable revenue stream and greater lifetime value per customer.)

Mobile 1st Marketers use mobile as a business strategy, not a media channel. Mobile 1st businesses apply Human Centered Design to understand the customer journey, especially the unarticulated pain points, and use mobile to help people accomplish tasks. Delta has done a brilliant job of this, even down to solving the latent anxiety felt by many travelers who worry whether their bag was successfully loaded on the plane. Domino’s is also embracing a Mobile 1st approach, not just with their Pizza Tracker, but now with the launch of Domino’s Hot Spots nationwide.

Purpose-Driven companies are human centered, but in a different way. Brands such as Tom’s, Chobani and Dove aren’t listening to customers to figure out how to be more relevant. They are guided by a clear sense of purpose about making the world a better place. They operate as a force for positive change and attract people who share that same belief. (Research increasingly shows a growing number of customers will consider a brand’s stand on social issues before making a choice.)

As I said at the start, change is simply the new normal. The most exciting change in marketing is how, in an increasingly digital age, we are returning our focus to the human experience. We’re remembering a timeless human lesson: To build lasting customer relationships, we must first earn the customer’s trust by designing experiences inspired by genuine human empathy.

Because what’s true in life, is true in marketing.